Monday, July 18, 2016
HOW WILL "BREXIT" IMPACT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET...LONG TERM?
This is the $64,000
question for which everyone would like an answer. The short answer is, it probably won't affect it long
term. Why? First of all, 4 million citizens of the
UK have already signed a petition for a revote. So who knows whether Brexit will actually occur and if it
does experts predict about 28-36 months for it to happen. Secondly, the true impact has already
been felt as investors panic and seek solace in Treasuries. As the Washington Post reported,
"Brexit has spawned the recent bout of volatility in global financial
markets. That has anxious
investors scurrying for
safety--and few assets are safer than US Treasury bonds. High demand for government debt pulls
down interest rates." Having
reported this, however, it is unlikely they will stay down permanently because
of Brexit. In fact, we are seeing
the markets settle already.
Much larger issues loom for Southern Californians than Brexit; namely
affordability, scarcity of inventory in general, and affordable housing in
particular. The rental market has
also never been tighter than it is right now, as the median price hits its 2007
boom price point; more on that later.
What Brexit does do, is keep the lid on interest rates, and focus on
real estate as a safer bet than financial markets, particularly the world
financials since most investments are heavily blended at this point. Many investors will like the closeness
of the real estate investment and the solid nature of a fixed commodity with
ability to leverage the investment dollar. These attractive attributes are always present in real
estate, and exist for the common homeowner, with a tax deduction for interest,
as well as the seasoned investor.
Long term impact will no doubt play out, and frankly, we have other
mitigating factors affecting the market as well, chiefly the presidential
contest. National elections always
spur some waffling over the unknown but the 2016 campaign may cause more worry
than most. What does bode well is
the general health of the So Cal economy and the jobs being added. Workers are working longer and maybe
pay raises are long in coming (this being the weakness economically, is wages
pacing appreciation), but overall read on to find out why there is reason for
optimism...
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