HOUSING APPEARS POISED FOR STRONG 2021, REST OF REAL ESTATE A MIXED BAG

 Wow, what amazing finish to one of our most difficult years ever, in terms of worry and hardship; but those who had the nerves to pursue housing were rewarded on both the seller and buyer side. The result were some staggering rebound sales numbers, the second half of 2020, (to be given in the next section), that have set the stage for an equally strong 2021. According to DataQuick/CoreLogic, the first half of 2020 plunged on average 24% in 6 So Cal counties and climbed 51%, the second half which is the greatest turnaround in 33 years. Historically, second half rebounds are a precursor for a strong year following— so far that appears to be the case. According to Jonathan Lasner’s Bubble watch algorithm, a scale of 1-5, 5 being huge bubble, we are currently at a 1. Good news for sellers, but better for buyers afraid of buying at the top of an over inflated market. These types of rebounds generally have a beneficial advantage for purchasing power, the beginning of 2021 giving buyers 2% greater buying power. 

(This according to projections by UCLA’s Allen Matkins/Anderson economists.). On the commercial side, office space is holding even, retail has slipped significantly, and the true bright spots are multiple family units and industrial. Particularly warehouse and manufacturing or assembly and distribution as Californian’s change how they pandemic shop, reflecting a massive shift to online. 

WHAT WERE THE ACTUAL NUMBERS?

Unbelievable numbers! Total number of sales for December, the last complete month numbers available, was 3,611, which is an increase of 17.7% over December 2019. (All numbers reflect year over year for the same month.). Single-family resale reported 2,254, up just over 30 %. Condos came in at 1,021, a very big number for condos, up 26%. New homes, always lagging had 336 sales, the only figure in negative territory, it represented a 36% drop. Resale median price rose 12.5% to $890,000; Condos also increased 3.7% to $544,000; New homes barely noticeable at 1.4% rise to $882,000; Finally the overall median price for all homes was $795,000 up 8.2%. Average monthly payment was virtually unchanged, but it did go down slightly from $3,485 to $3,445.

DON’T EXPECT BIG FORECLOSURE MARKET ANY TIME SOON

The top five cities in OC for notices of default, hardly constitute a worrisome scenario. Number one had an NOD ratio of 1 in 1,261 homes; number 5 was 1 in 5,273. With forbearances still active and COVID relief packages still being actively sought by Congress, most lenders may be reticent to file NOD’s unless a last resort. Realtors are here to help you navigate during this extraordinary time.