Monday, July 18, 2016

HOW WILL "BREXIT" IMPACT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET...LONG TERM?

This is the $64,000 question for which everyone would like an answer.  The short answer is, it probably won't affect it long term.  Why?  First of all, 4 million citizens of the UK have already signed a petition for a revote.  So who knows whether Brexit will actually occur and if it does experts predict about 28-36 months for it to happen.  Secondly, the true impact has already been felt as investors panic and seek solace in Treasuries.  As the Washington Post reported, "Brexit has spawned the recent bout of volatility in global financial markets.  That has anxious investors scurrying  for safety--and few assets are safer than US Treasury bonds.  High demand for government debt pulls down interest rates."  Having reported this, however, it is unlikely they will stay down permanently because of Brexit.  In fact, we are seeing the markets settle already.   Much larger issues loom for Southern Californians than Brexit; namely affordability, scarcity of inventory in general, and affordable housing in particular.  The rental market has also never been tighter than it is right now, as the median price hits its 2007 boom price point; more on that later.  What Brexit does do, is keep the lid on interest rates, and focus on real estate as a safer bet than financial markets, particularly the world financials since most investments are heavily blended at this point.  Many investors will like the closeness of the real estate investment and the solid nature of a fixed commodity with ability to leverage the investment dollar.  These attractive attributes are always present in real estate, and exist for the common homeowner, with a tax deduction for interest, as well as the seasoned investor.  Long term impact will no doubt play out, and frankly, we have other mitigating factors affecting the market as well, chiefly the presidential contest.  National elections always spur some waffling over the unknown but the 2016 campaign may cause more worry than most.  What does bode well is the general health of the So Cal economy and the jobs being added.  Workers are working longer and maybe pay raises are long in coming (this being the weakness economically, is wages pacing appreciation), but overall read on to find out why there is reason for optimism...

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